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فلڈ بلیٹن اور ایڈوائزری

Flood Bulletins & Advisories issued by the Flood Forecasting Division

Official copy
Issued 05 Oct 2026, 12:00 PST · Bulletin No. 113/26
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GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN
MINISTRY OF DEFENCE (DEFENCE DIVISION)
PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION
46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE-54000
BULLETIN No: 113/26 Dated: 5th October-2026 Time: 12:00 hours (PST)

RIVERS AT A GLANCE

INDUS
Below Low		KABUL
Below Low		JHELUM
Below Low		CHENAB
Below Low		RAVI
Below Low		SUTLEJ
Below Low

FLOOD SEVERITY SCALE

Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High

RAINFALL FORECAST — NEXT 24 & 48 HOURS

Rainfall forecast — next 24 hours
Rainfall forecast — next 24 hours
Rainfall outlook — next 48 hours
Rainfall outlook — next 48 hours

RIVERS SITUATION AND QUALITATIVE FLOOD FORECAST

I.      METEOROLOGICAL FEATURES

  • Yesterday's trough of westerly wave over northwest Afghanistan, today lies over north Afghanistan. 

  • Continental air is prevailing over most parts of the country.

  • Weak moist currents from Arabian Sea are penetrating to upper parts of the country upto 2500 feet.

II.     METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK              

  • Isolated to Scattered rain-wind/thunderstorm is expected over the upper catchments of rivers Indus, Kabul and Jhelum, Islamabad, Kashmir,  Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, some parts of Gilgit-Baltistan and Upper Punjab.

III.    HYDROLOGICAL SITUATION at 0600 PST

  • All major rivers are flowing in their normal flows at all gauging stations.

IV.    HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK

  • Flows in all major rivers are expected to remain within the normal flow range at their respective rim stations.
 

V.     WEATHER FORECAST FOR 24-HOUR

  • Scattered rain-wind/thunderstorm is expected over 

    Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Bajaur, Buner, Charsadda, Malakand, Mardan, Mohmand, Nowshera, Peshawar and Swabi.

  • Isolated rain-wind/thunderstorm is expected over the upper catchments of rivers Indus, Kabul and Jhelum, Islamabad, Kashmir,  

    Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Abbottabad, Batagram, Chitral, Hangu, Haripur, Karak, Khyber, Kohat, Kohistan, Kurram, Mansehra, Orakzai, Shangla, Swat, Tor Ghar and Dir. 

    Punjab: Attock, Chakwal, Gujrat, Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin, Sargodha, Mianwali and Rawalpindi. 

    Gilgit-Baltistan: Darel, Ghizer, Gupis and Tangir. 

VI.    WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 48-HOURS   

  • Scattered rain-wind/thunderstorm is expected over the upper catchments of all the major rivers, Islamabad, Kashmir,

    Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Abbottabad, Bajaur, Buner, Charsadda, Haripur, Kohat, Malakand, Mardan, Mohmand, Nowshera, Peshawar, Swabi, Swat and Dir. 

    Punjab: Attock, Chakwal, Chiniot, Faisalabad, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Hafizabad, Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin, Lahore, Kasur, Sheikhupura, Nankana Sahib, Narowal, Rawalpindi, Sargodha and Sialkot.

  • Isolated rain-wind/thunderstorm is expected over Gilgit-Baltistan,

    Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Bannu, Batagram, Chitral, DI Khan, Hangu, Karak, Khyber, Kohistan, Kurram, Lakki Marwat, Mansehra, Orakzai, Shangla, Waziristan, Tank and Tor Ghar. 

    Punjab: Bhakkar, Jhang, Khushab, Mianwali and Toba Tek Singh. 

     

WEEKLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLOOK 

(06th  October, 2026 to 12th October, 2026)

I.      RAINFALL OUTLOOK

  • On account of prevailing westerly weather system, Scattered rain-wind/thunderstorm is expected over Islamabad, Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and North Punjab from 06th October to 11th October with occasional gaps. 

II.     FLOOD OUTLOOK

  • Flows are expected to remain normal at all rim stations of all the major rivers during the period.

Page break

3. WEATHER/RAINFALL FORECAST FOR NEXT 24-HRS

RIVERSUpper Catchments
(Above Rim Stations)		Lower Catchments
(Below Rim Stations)

RESERVOIRS LEVEL (FEET) at (0600 PST)

TARBELA

  
Level1520.69 ft

1380.00 dead → 1550.00 max cons.

   
Storage71.16% live

0.960 dead + 3.971 / 6.511 MAF live

MANGLA

  
Level1206.85 ft

1040.00 dead → 1242.00 max cons.

   
Storage64.31% live

1.000 dead + 4.680 / 7.387 MAF live

INDUS

Isolated thunderstorm/rain

Isolated thunderstorm/rain

JHELUM

Isolated thunderstorm/rain

Isolated thunderstorm/rain

CHENAB

Mainly dry

Isolated thunderstorm/rain

RAVI

Mainly dry

Mainly dry

SUTLEJ

Mainly dry

Mainly dry

4. QUANTITATIVE FLOOD FORECAST OF GAUGING STATIONS (IN THOUSANDS OF CUSECS)

RIVERSStationsActual Observations at 0600 PSTQuantitative Forecast for Next 24-hrs (Inflow)Qualitative Forecasted Flood Level (Inflow)Max Flood Peaks
(In Thousands of Cusecs)
InflowOutflowHistoricalFlood Season 2026
INDUSTarbela46.072.540 - 50Below Low832.0EH (2010)343.0
INDUSKalabagh87.180.085 - 95Below Low950.0EH (1942)464.1
INDUSChashma92.089.885 - 95Below Low1038.9EH (2010)378.6
INDUSTaunsa88.468.385 - 90Below Low960.0VH (2010)386.3
INDUSGuddu70.656.660 - 70Below Low1199.7EH (1976)426.9
INDUSSukkur56.914.0No sig. changeBelow Low1166.6EH (1986)369.5
INDUSKotri39.92.730 - 40Below Low980.3EH (1956)184.1
KABULNowshera10.210.215 - 20Below Low391.3EH (1990)78.5
JHELUMMangla7.534.310 - 15Below Low1090.0EH (1992)137.0
JHELUMRasul37.515.835 - 40Below Low952.2EH (1992)63.7
CHENABMarala13.74.015 - 20Below Low1100.0EH (1957)275.6
CHENABKhanki9.51.9No sig. changeBelow Low1086.4EH (1959)261.5
CHENABQadirabad19.50.0No sig. changeBelow Low1078.0EH (2025)267.2
CHENABTrimmu18.43.3No sig. changeBelow Low944.3EH (1928)193.8
CHENABPunjnad10.50.0No sig. changeBelow Low802.5EH (1973)146.6
RAVIJassar1.21.201 - 02Below Low680.0EH (1955)36.2
RAVIShahdara0.90.9No sig. changeBelow Low576.0EH (1988)33.6
RAVIBalloki22.50.0No sig. changeBelow Low389.8EH (1988)87.7
RAVISidhnai13.10.0No sig. changeBelow Low330.2EH (1988)61.7
SUTLEJG.S. Wala0.10.10.1 - 0.2Below Low837.0** (1955)8.3
SUTLEJSulemanki16.44.1No sig. changeBelow Low598.9EH (1955)27.2
SUTLEJIslam4.82.4No sig. changeBelow Low492.6EH (1955)10.7

Spatial: Isolated=20 to 30% of area | Scattered=31 to 50% of area | Fairly Widespread=51 to 75% of area | Widespread=76 to 100% of area, R= Rising, F=Falling

Intensity (mm/24 hours): Light ≤ 10, Moderate =10.1 – 30, Heavy=30.1 – 70, Very Heavy=70.1 - 150, Extremely Heavy > 150

Note: Concerned Departments may contact FFD, Lahore for rectification up-dation (if any)

5. HOW CLOSE IS EACH RIVER TO ITS LIMIT?

Chashma is the closest to flooding at 92.0 — 158.0 below its low flood level (250.0). Each bar is one station’s own flood levels across its maximum capacity; the solid run is the flow so far, the pale run is the room still left.

Station
 Below Low Low Medium High Very High Exceptionally High 
NowMax cap.
Tarbela
 Below LowLowMediumHighVHExceptionally High
46.0250.0375.0500.0650.0800.0 
46.01500
Kalabagh
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighEH
87.1250.0375.0500.0650.0800.0 
87.1950
Chashma
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighEH
92.0250.0375.0500.0650.0800.0 
92.0950
Taunsa
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighEH
88.4250.0375.0500.0650.0800.0 
88.41000
Guddu
 BLLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High
70.6200.0350.0500.0700.0900.0 
70.61200
Sukkur
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery High
56.9200.0350.0500.0700.0 
56.9900
Kotri
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighEH
39.9200.0300.0450.0650.0800.0 
39.9875
Mangla
 BLLMHighVHExceptionally High
7.575.0  225.0300.0 
7.51060
Rasul
BL LMHighVHExceptionally High
37.5   225.0300.0 
37.5850
Marala
 BLLowMHighVery HighExceptionally High
13.7100.0  400.0600.0 
13.71100
Khanki
 BLLowMHighVery HighExceptionally High
9.5100.0  400.0600.0 
9.51100
Qadirabad
 BLLowMHighVery HighExceptionally High
19.5100.0  400.0600.0 
19.5900
Trimmu
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High
18.4150.0 300.0450.0600.0 
18.4875
Punjnad
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High
10.5150.0 300.0450.0600.0 
10.5865
Jassar
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High
1.250.075.0100.0150.0200.0 
1.2275
Shahdara
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High
0.940.065.090.0135.0180.0 
0.9250
Balloki
BL LowMHighVery HighExceptionally High
22.5 65.090.0135.0180.0 
22.5380
Sidhnai
 BLLowMediumHighVery HighEH
13.130.046.060.090.0130.0 
13.1150
Sulemanki
 BLLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High
16.450.080.0120.0175.0225.0 
16.4325
Islam
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High
4.850.080.0120.0175.0225.0 
4.8300

All figures in thousands of cusecs. Full bar = maximum (design) capacity. Solid colour is the flow reached so far and the pale wash beside it is the room still left; the dark line between them is the current reading, printed beneath it. Thin white lines are that station’s flood levels with their thresholds beneath, so the same colour can begin at a different point on every bar. Each band is named inside itself — initialled (BL, L, M, H, VH, EH) where the band is too narrow for the words, and left blank where it is too narrow for those. Stations without a design capacity are not shown.

 

6. RAINFALL RECORDED — LAST 24-HRS (UPTO 0800 PST)

Rainfall recorded — last 24 hours (upto 0800 PST)
Rainfall recorded — last 24 hours (upto 0800 PST)
 

7. RIVERS CATCHMENTS RAINFALL RECORDED (MM) DURING LAST 24-HRS (UPTO 0800 PST)

Rainfall: NiL

 Muhammad Aleem ul Hassan
Chief Meteorologist
FFD Lahore

Distribution:

  1. President Secretariat, Islamabad

  2. PM House, Islamabad

  3. Governor (All Provinces)

  4. Chairman NDMA, Islamabad

  5. Chief Minister (All Provinces)

  6. Secretary, Ministry of Defence, Islamabad

  7. Secretary, Ministry for Water Resources, Islamabad

  8. Secretary, Ministry of Information, Islamabad

  9. Secretary, Climate Change, Islamabad

  10. The Secretary General, Red Crescent, Islamabad

  11. Secretary, Irrigation Department (All Provinces)

  12. Chairman NHA, Islamabad

  13. Chief Secretary (All Provinces)

  14. DG Pak Met Services, Islamabad

  15. DG Engineers, Engineering Directorate GHQ, Rawalpindi

  16. PDMAs (DGs – All Provinces/Gilgit Baltistan)

  17. SDMA Azad Jammu & Kashmir

  18. Chairman, Federal Flood Commission, Islamabad

  19. Chairman, Indus River System Authority, Islamabad

  20. Chairman, PCRWR, Islamabad

  21. Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters (PCIW), Islamabad

  22. Chief Engineer, Mangla/Tarbela/Chashma

  23. Chief Engineer, Irrigation (All Provinces)

  24. Chief Engineer (All Barrages)

  25. Chief Engineer, C.D.O., Muzaffarabad

  26. All Other Concerned

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